tsogjargal
0x405c5e6e12f2811ff69ebe04739fe7ba4bf8e2c4
- Realised P&L
- $-1.15
- Volume
- $70.72
- Markets traded
- 3
- Open portfolio
- $1.79
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded3
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 7? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.065 | $1.67 | −$0.33 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.06at 0.170Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 13:40 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 13:37 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.0761904762 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 13:13 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.18 | $1.06 |
| 08-06 09:12 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 10:11 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.0299999712 | $1.00 |