Calc
0x3fd04ee1415111347febf99a0ce7ba2f83537474
- Realised P&L
- $-3.36
- Volume
- $58.10
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $0.11
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USD be less than 1.7M Iranian rials on August 31? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.090 | $0.11 | −$0.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.16at 0.730Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$0.07at 0.850 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
- +$0.02at 0.826US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.890Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?
- +$-0.01at 0.156Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 02:11 | Will USD be less than 1.7M Iranian rials on August 31? | BUY | 0.8099999757 | $1.00 |
| 07-02 18:38 | Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $0.56 |
| 07-02 18:34 | RFK Jr. Out by December 31? | SELL | 0.52 | $0.70 |
| 07-02 18:17 | RFK Jr. Out by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 07-02 18:09 | Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999648 | $1.00 |
| 06-24 18:59 | Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $0.76 |
| 06-24 17:37 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | SELL | 0.91 | $1.06 |
| 06-24 17:37 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $1.16 |
| 06-24 17:15 | Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 06-24 17:11 | Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | SELL | 0.39 | $0.46 |
| 06-23 12:30 | Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.00 |
| 06-20 20:17 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 06-20 20:11 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.155 | $0.99 |
| 06-20 17:43 | Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? | SELL | 0.61 | $0.96 |
| 06-20 15:22 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | BUY | 0.8499994475 | $1.00 |