lonelywolfa
0x3f283b028a178eebd41d0cb6b74dfec40d9749d6
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $21.2k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $9.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? · Yes | 0.843 | 0.925 | $2.8k | +$247.66 |
| Will Trump say "Stock Market" during remarks in Las Vegas? · Yes | 0.899 | 0.920 | $2.3k | +$51.57 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.525 | $2.1k | +$138.71 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6? · Yes | 0.455 | 0.500 | $1.1k | +$97.73 |
| Will Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August? · No | 0.930 | 0.805 | $1.0k | −$155.55 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 5? · No | 0.955 | 1.000 | $111.68 | +$4.99 |
| Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in August? · No | 0.940 | 0.925 | $92.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.605 | 0.001 | $3.23 | −$1.9k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$165.81at 0.393Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 4?
- +$49.02at 0.917Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on August 4?
- +$26.22at 0.900Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 4?
- +$24.55at 0.948Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 4?
- +$0.09at 0.900Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 14:40 | Will Trump say "Stock Market" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.93 | $47.43 |
| 08-05 14:40 | Will Trump say "Stock Market" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.93 | $25.11 |
| 08-05 14:39 | Will Trump say "Stock Market" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.9 | $385.52 |
| 08-05 14:39 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.9981000954 | $460.28 |
| 08-05 14:07 | Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? | BUY | 0.91 | $120.12 |
| 08-05 14:07 | Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? | BUY | 0.9 | $633.14 |
| 08-05 14:06 | Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in August? | BUY | 0.94 | $94.00 |
| 08-05 14:03 | Will Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August? | BUY | 0.95 | $451.37 |
| 08-05 14:03 | Will Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August? | BUY | 0.93 | $279.00 |
| 08-05 14:03 | Will Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August? | BUY | 0.92 | $138.00 |
| 08-05 14:02 | Will Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August? | BUY | 0.91 | $190.30 |
| 08-05 14:02 | Will Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August? | BUY | 0.9 | $90.00 |
| 08-05 14:02 | Will Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August? | BUY | 0.85 | $8.50 |
| 08-05 09:15 | Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? | BUY | 0.83 | $24.90 |
| 08-05 09:14 | Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? | BUY | 0.83 | $201.89 |