0x3F1Ea89728f53bE267121680e61A97be7fFABC5D-1769791200132
0x3f1ea89728f53be267121680e61a97be7ffabc5d
- Realised P&L
- $-31.82
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $45.83
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.750 | 0.760 | $20.27 | +$0.27 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.540 | 0.355 | $13.15 | −$6.85 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.049 | $12.42 | −$7.58 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? · No | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? · No | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · No | 0.191 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · No | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$45.75at 0.610US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
- +$18.56at 0.036Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$5.00at 0.800US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
- +$4.74at 0.760Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?
- +$3.89at 0.720Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-13 20:58 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5399999881 | $20.00 |
| 05-13 20:55 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.1028011304 | $28.56 |
| 05-04 10:50 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0359999966 | $10.00 |
| 04-27 11:07 | Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.75 | $20.00 |
| 04-27 11:06 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0789174939 | $20.00 |
| 03-19 19:24 | US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $20.00 |
| 03-11 17:06 | Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9109999981 | $30.00 |
| 03-01 01:16 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.04 | $5.00 |
| 02-28 18:14 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.219999985 | $10.00 |
| 02-28 18:11 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.5179999999 | $30.00 |
| 02-27 13:29 | US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999687 | $20.00 |
| 02-22 21:28 | US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999991 | $20.00 |
| 02-22 21:27 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999961 | $20.00 |
| 02-18 20:13 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3685400569 | $18.12 |
| 02-17 19:21 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | BUY | 0.7599999919 | $15.00 |