0x3bce1cd9afb3c6e882a1d62c39a3fb6256b25325
- Realised P&L
- $-18.98
- Volume
- $618.00
- Markets traded
- 101
- Open portfolio
- $1.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded101
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.290 | $1.26 | +$0.26 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on August 5? · No | 0.070 | 0.015 | $0.21 | −$0.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.84at 0.510Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?
- +$3.60at 0.217Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?
- +$2.52at 0.601Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?
- +$1.68at 0.640Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
- +$1.67at 0.780Will France win on 2026-06-30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 02:12 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on August 5? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 02:05 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 00:38 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $1.00 |
| 07-24 14:52 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | SELL | 0.534 | $0.72 |
| 07-24 14:49 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4699998778 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 16:47 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 07-22 04:26 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 01:24 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July? | SELL | 0.79 | $0.99 |
| 07-19 05:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 07-18 01:47 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |
| 07-17 14:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July? | SELL | 0.87 | $1.00 |
| 07-17 14:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July? | BUY | 0.8699992344 | $1.00 |
| 07-17 14:45 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.995 | $1.10 |
| 07-16 23:12 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.9039995733 | $1.00 |
| 07-16 23:12 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.889 | $1.03 |