millionfyte
0x38d3d6ef449ed5c8873d8af2b3825e5b40e95bdf
- Realised P&L
- $-120.62
- Volume
- $7.3k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $51.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta (META) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.840 | 0.175 | $52.50 | −$199.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 16? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.10 |
| Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 27? · Up | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 17? · Yes | 0.308 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$109.62at 0.785SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 15?
- +$95.89at 0.758NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 31?
- +$78.52at 0.688S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 14?
- +$74.34at 0.729Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 16?
- +$68.07at 0.595Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 12:39 | Meta (META) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.84 | $21.00 |
| 08-05 12:38 | Meta (META) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.84 | $63.00 |
| 08-03 13:16 | Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on August 3? | BUY | 0.8705838035 | $200.00 |
| 07-31 12:57 | NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 31? | BUY | 0.767000864 | $100.00 |
| 07-31 12:57 | NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 31? | BUY | 0.766208245 | $100.00 |
| 07-31 12:57 | Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 31? | BUY | 0.819999999 | $100.00 |
| 07-31 12:56 | NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 31? | BUY | 0.7407407407 | $100.00 |
| 07-30 08:56 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.27 | $2.70 |
| 07-30 08:56 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.429 | $4.29 |
| 07-30 08:56 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.48 | $75.00 |
| 07-30 08:56 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $10.36 |
| 07-29 01:27 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.2052412382 | $31.10 |
| 07-27 12:40 | Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 27? | BUY | 0.839999999 | $100.00 |
| 07-27 12:40 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 27? | BUY | 0.9329182655 | $100.00 |
| 07-21 12:41 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.0838426951 | $18.70 |