usdds
0x38018efa1f65f467437f0f60431b558e72ea595e
- Realised P&L
- $-53.50
- Volume
- $25.8k
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $73.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Thinky be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.994 | $13.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? · No | 0.967 | 0.968 | $13.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $12.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $11.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $10.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $9.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.996 | 0.997 | $1.20 | +$0.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend · JD Gaming | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.46 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? · No | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$43.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.52at 0.730Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?
- +$9.45at 0.595Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$5.76at 0.735Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?
- +$4.14at 0.520Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2026-01-20?
- +$3.33at 0.750Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 03:20 | Will Thinky be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $14.00 |
| 08-03 03:20 | Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.9669999991 | $13.00 |
| 08-03 03:20 | Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.00 |
| 08-03 03:20 | Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.00 |
| 08-03 03:19 | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 03:19 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.00 |
| 07-19 06:19 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.735 | $15.99 |
| 07-19 06:18 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.595 | $13.88 |
| 07-19 05:37 | Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $8.57 |
| 07-19 05:37 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $8.99 |
| 07-19 05:37 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $12.27 |
| 07-04 05:43 | Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $12.00 |
| 07-04 05:43 | Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.00 |
| 07-04 05:42 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $13.00 |
| 07-04 05:42 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.00 |