McF1y
0x3680c4e5556f51fb22000870f64f27ab7d91a456
- Realised P&L
- $-5.7k
- Volume
- $883.4k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $11.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.004 | $6.00 | −$99.00 |
| Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.002 | $5.36 | −$44.63 |
| Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.97 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$79.99 |
| Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.17 |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$102.03 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.69 |
| Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.506Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
- +$893.08at 0.081Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
- +$436.57at 0.290Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
- +$406.72at 0.120Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
- +$262.99at 0.591Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 01:30 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.037 | $44.40 |
| 05-06 16:49 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? | BUY | 0.002 | $6.00 |
| 05-06 11:48 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? | SELL | 0.002 | $5.39 |
| 05-04 12:01 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? | BUY | 0.002 | $6.07 |
| 05-01 18:05 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? | SELL | 0.003 | $3.00 |
| 04-17 11:22 | Will Trump dance during TPUSA event on April 17? | BUY | 0.54 | $57.21 |
| 04-15 18:02 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.92 |
| 04-15 05:42 | Will Donald Trump announce Eric Shmitt as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.31 |
| 04-08 18:52 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | SELL | 0.87 | $0.09 |
| 04-08 18:52 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | SELL | 0.12 | $12.39 |
| 04-06 08:44 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | BUY | 0.1199999996 | $244.00 |
| 04-01 08:24 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $96.00 |
| 03-31 23:53 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.008 | $0.64 |
| 03-31 12:21 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.024 | $19.36 |
| 03-31 05:49 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.023434302 | $119.51 |