0x3556fdf7a8cde4084da879b785374281aa214aca
- Realised P&L
- $2.70
- Volume
- $466.31
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $19.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.390 | $12.19 | +$2.19 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.230 | $4.40 | −$1.15 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.065 | $1.63 | −$0.38 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.095 | $1.57 | −$0.75 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.017 | $0.17 | −$0.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.29at 0.720Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
- +$8.43at 0.360Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$6.88at 0.455Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?
- +$6.73at 0.620Will France win on 2026-07-09?
- +$0.77at 0.940Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 08:49 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2449999167 | $2.00 |
| 07-10 03:53 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31? | BUY | 0.1306059351 | $12.00 |
| 07-10 03:44 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? | BUY | 0.2899999634 | $5.55 |
| 07-10 03:29 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $10.00 |
| 07-08 04:01 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 07-08 04:00 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 07-08 04:00 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 07-08 03:59 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 07-08 03:56 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 07-08 03:45 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | BUY | 0.0989999118 | $1.00 |
| 07-07 03:45 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.6199999932 | $10.98 |
| 07-06 04:00 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.00 |
| 07-05 05:35 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.7199999946 | $26.47 |
| 07-05 05:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.998 | $13.21 |
| 06-23 17:35 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.025 | $1.00 |