tgrdy
0x33e073440d9ac43e2e190e910f0b02b2fbd17d46
- Realised P&L
- $30.1k
- Volume
- $14.86M
- Markets traded
- 299
- Open portfolio
- $5.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded299
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration88.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? · No | 0.795 | 0.655 | $3.8k | −$818.75 |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.660 | $1.3k | +$820.00 |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? · No | 0.800 | 0.875 | $29.62 | +$2.54 |
| Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.002 | $25.21 | −$246.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$137.3kat 0.545Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$21.5kat 0.743US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
- +$19.7kat 0.505US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
- +$18.9kat 0.997Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
- +$16.5kat 0.570Colts vs. Seahawks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 23:25 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.06 |
| 07-14 23:25 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.09 |
| 06-06 15:18 | Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | SELL | 0.82 | $459.46 |
| 06-01 08:14 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | SELL | 0.74 | $139.56 |
| 06-01 08:13 | Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? | SELL | 0.0064088869 | $7.13 |
| 05-28 22:18 | Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $14.62 |
| 05-28 22:18 | Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $6.30 |
| 05-28 22:17 | Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.0048397037 | $37.56 |
| 04-09 10:38 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.998 | $71.5k |
| 04-05 07:29 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $71.3k |
| 04-04 06:48 | Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $22.23 |
| 04-04 06:46 | US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.114949816 | $322.63 |
| 04-04 06:46 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.126668864 | $966.52 |
| 03-19 00:27 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? | SELL | 0.046 | $1.14 |
| 03-18 08:21 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.64 | $380.87 |