helmsdeep
0x32bbd2b7fd30bdc569a785419aa9854d74b7894a
- Realised P&L
- $-2.7k
- Volume
- $64.9k
- Markets traded
- 159
- Open portfolio
- $2.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded159
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$785.35at 0.728US military action against Iran before July?
- +$157.50at 0.160US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$152.91at 0.499Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$142.31at 0.260Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$139.62at 0.887Iran x Israel conflict ends by Friday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 14:27 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.59 | $29.50 |
| 07-29 14:26 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.51 | $51.00 |
| 07-29 14:25 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.48 | $14.40 |
| 07-29 14:24 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.35 | $31.57 |
| 07-29 14:23 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.51 | $51.00 |
| 07-17 07:29 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.4699999915 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 07:29 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.95 |
| 07-17 07:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.6599999842 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 07:17 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.7899999866 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 07:17 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.829999956 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 07:17 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18? | BUY | 0.9649999976 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 07:15 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.586 | $58.60 |
| 07-17 07:14 | Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.37 | $37.00 |
| 06-23 10:45 | Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $1.22 |
| 06-23 10:44 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999986 | $50.00 |