Mjwang
0x3297444a088d75766a43b101425250a95936e554
- Realised P&L
- $0.18
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $11.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)59.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.595 | $5.95 | −$0.15 |
| StandX FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.525 | $5.25 | −$0.55 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.155 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · England | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.04at 0.181Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$9.71at 0.340Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
- +$4.17at 0.580Bitcoin Up or Down on April 13?
- +$4.00at 0.530Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
- +$3.93at 0.560Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 04:07 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.45 | $4.50 |
| 08-01 00:43 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.41 | $4.10 |
| 07-25 11:08 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.746 | $7.46 |
| 07-21 00:06 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.33 | $3.30 |
| 07-16 04:56 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.579 | $15.99 |
| 07-16 04:55 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? | SELL | 0.49 | $8.82 |
| 07-16 00:44 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.655 | $5.90 |
| 07-15 08:07 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.54 | $5.40 |
| 07-15 01:10 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? | BUY | 0.56 | $10.08 |
| 07-15 01:04 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.574 | $5.17 |
| 07-15 01:02 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.575 | $4.60 |
| 07-15 01:01 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.575 | $5.75 |
| 07-15 01:00 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.581 | $16.05 |
| 07-12 09:24 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-14? | SELL | 0.28 | $2.80 |
| 07-11 23:50 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.3 | $3.00 |