lighthing
0x30b47f986be8a8463d794f5d8dbada91aa7fc4c7
- Realised P&L
- $-119.66
- Volume
- $8.1k
- Markets traded
- 520
- Open portfolio
- $13.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded520
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.39at 0.041Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 30?
- +$7.72at 0.116Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 15?
- +$7.41at 0.350Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 10?
- +$7.16at 0.200Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 9?
- +$6.69at 0.130Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 20:00 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 7? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 20:00 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 7? | BUY | 0.4099998237 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 15:00 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.5599998432 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 20:00 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 6? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 15:00 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 20:00 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 5? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 15:00 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 20:13 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 15:14 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.3799999012 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 20:12 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 3? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 15:13 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 20:00 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 2? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 15:00 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 03:13 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 1? | BUY | 0.0356435307 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 20:14 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on August 1? | BUY | 0.3499998775 | $1.00 |