willw
0x302c081a6a04e8dba38226cdd1c7f82d0a8e4e79
- Realised P&L
- $-183.77
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $10.77
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration37.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? · Yes | 0.458 | 0.041 | $10.77 | −$109.60 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.25 |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.97at 0.800US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$29.57at 0.800US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
- +$22.23at 0.090Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- +$4.02at 0.820Gold missing from Fort Knox?
- +$2.97at 0.910US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-13 13:03 | Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | SELL | 0.1529846452 | $53.60 |
| 03-19 21:45 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.3801199208 | $50.00 |
| 03-19 21:44 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.84 | $33.60 |
| 03-15 13:46 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.5346534581 | $30.00 |
| 03-15 13:44 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.5382666667 | $40.37 |
| 03-15 13:41 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $51.75 |
| 02-16 16:56 | US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $5.04 |
| 02-16 16:49 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.83 | $33.20 |
| 02-11 14:52 | US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999994 | $30.00 |
| 01-18 10:46 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $147.86 |
| 01-11 14:43 | US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $118.29 |
| 03-08 15:35 | Sidemen Charity Match | BUY | 0.6699999625 | $5.00 |
| 02-28 23:55 | US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | BUY | 0.5899999953 | $25.00 |
| 02-28 23:52 | Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | BUY | 0.6699999794 | $25.00 |
| 02-28 23:48 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | BUY | 0.8799999296 | $10.00 |