0x2f1bd0699716985fc09221ecf7e0800b6fd5e7e7
- Realised P&L
- $7.17
- Volume
- $54.49
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $15.79
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar13.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes | 0.750 | 1.000 | $3.05 | +$0.76 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.930 | $2.66 | +$0.37 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.815 | $2.39 | +$0.10 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.770 | $2.29 | +$0.00 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · No | 0.590 | 0.585 | $2.27 | −$0.02 |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $600 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.675 | $1.93 | −$0.36 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.750 | 0.375 | $1.14 | −$1.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.16at 0.420Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.60at 0.550Will Trump say "Socialist" during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.47at 0.520Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.19at 0.610Will Trump say "Data Center" during cabinet meeting?
- +$0.00at 0.499Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 09:31 | Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.5899999304 | $2.29 |
| 08-04 01:31 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.29 |
| 08-03 17:29 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699998386 | $2.29 |
| 08-03 09:29 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $600 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.29 |
| 08-02 21:07 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.7799999659 | $2.29 |
| 08-02 01:43 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.29 |
| 08-01 16:56 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.29 |
| 08-01 04:59 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.29 |
| 07-31 20:58 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999281 | $1.56 |
| 07-31 12:58 | Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.419999967 | $2.29 |
| 07-30 16:04 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4989999935 | $1.99 |
| 07-30 06:38 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 19:46 | Will Trump say "Data Center" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.6099999377 | $1.86 |
| 07-29 01:31 | Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.5199998953 | $1.59 |
| 07-28 07:22 | Will Trump say "Socialist" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.5499999298 | $1.96 |