0x2d69aba780cae5f2118f977241647d75623afca7
- Realised P&L
- $1.25
- Volume
- $79.87
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $19.33
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.490 | 0.705 | $3.17 | +$0.97 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes | 0.740 | 1.000 | $2.97 | +$0.77 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.530 | 0.715 | $2.97 | +$0.77 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.290 | $2.77 | +$0.57 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.895 | $2.46 | +$0.26 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · No | 0.786 | 0.547 | $1.53 | −$0.67 |
| Will Trump say "Through the Roof" during remarks in Las Vegas? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.700 | $1.22 | +$0.10 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No | 0.210 | 0.105 | $1.10 | −$1.10 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.460 | 0.215 | $1.03 | −$1.17 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · No | 0.320 | 0.002 | $0.01 | −$2.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.69at 0.450Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.68at 0.530SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 28?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
- +$-0.00at 0.502Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 05:06 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.5299999374 | $2.20 |
| 08-04 20:50 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.4899999866 | $2.20 |
| 08-04 12:42 | Will Trump say "Through the Roof" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.12 |
| 08-04 04:39 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.7859999764 | $2.20 |
| 08-03 20:34 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.2099999341 | $2.20 |
| 08-03 20:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.20 |
| 08-03 11:34 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999289 | $2.20 |
| 08-03 03:34 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4499999693 | $2.20 |
| 08-02 18:54 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.459999954 | $2.20 |
| 08-01 22:47 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.20 |
| 08-01 14:05 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.7399999798 | $2.20 |
| 08-01 05:17 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.04 |
| 07-31 21:13 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5019999699 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 13:13 | Will Trump say "Coal" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.41 | $1.23 |
| 07-29 15:21 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |