AceUngart
0x2cdc5c7411eedd4c4abc5173e8369ea77214df7a
- Realised P&L
- $-154.04
- Volume
- $9.0k
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $25.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.327 | 0.175 | $15.01 | −$12.99 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No | 0.874 | 0.175 | $10.04 | −$39.96 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · No | 0.196 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$56.00 |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? · Yes | 0.106 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.363 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$163.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.475 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.00 |
| Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the March meeting? · No | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.20 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$131.25at 0.160Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024?
- +$82.42at 0.660Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?
- +$57.52at 0.549Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?
- +$51.78at 0.390Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?
- +$46.67at 0.300U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-03 21:36 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $26.00 |
| 03-03 01:07 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.3273004183 | $25.00 |
| 03-03 01:06 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SELL | 0.8 | $50.34 |
| 03-03 01:06 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $3.00 |
| 03-01 22:23 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.4746600698 | $40.00 |
| 03-01 00:13 | Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the March meeting? | BUY | 0.14 | $3.50 |
| 02-19 15:56 | US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999952 | $20.00 |
| 02-19 15:56 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $23.47 |
| 01-31 13:49 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.13 |
| 01-30 16:10 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8738032194 | $50.00 |
| 01-28 23:58 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999966 | $50.00 |
| 12-22 04:59 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $80.00 |
| 12-17 01:21 | U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? | BUY | 0.2999999925 | $20.00 |
| 12-15 20:26 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.149999994 | $20.00 |
| 12-12 13:18 | Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | SELL | 0.85 | $38.03 |