s0meone
0x2a9958838ef86cb22550eb35f5ef0e290da0a499
- Realised P&L
- $-8.9k
- Volume
- $1.21M
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $3.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.0kat 0.717Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
- +$6.4kat 0.533Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
- +$4.3kat 0.908Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
- +$3.2kat 0.595Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
- +$3.0kat 0.798Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 23:15 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6999999972 | $200.00 |
| 07-19 09:22 | Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.932880878 | $26.94 |
| 07-19 09:21 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8616453907 | $400.00 |
| 07-19 09:21 | Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9289999986 | $28.00 |
| 07-19 09:21 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6999999982 | $39.00 |
| 07-13 03:32 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.709999998 | $100.00 |
| 06-18 12:15 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7299999997 | $500.00 |
| 06-09 06:44 | Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $30.00 |
| 06-09 06:43 | Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8699999991 | $500.00 |
| 06-09 06:41 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.75 | $44.37 |
| 06-09 06:40 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.64 | $500.00 |
| 06-09 06:39 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7499999993 | $800.00 |
| 06-09 06:39 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8699999971 | $6.00 |
| 06-02 23:26 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.5831944759 | $876.25 |
| 06-02 23:26 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.7301062943 | $892.93 |