0x28B900953FbBAD5e58455C23C994B6f3C283427c-1756861089748
0x28b900953fbbad5e58455c23c994b6f3c283427c
- Realised P&L
- $375.35
- Volume
- $8.3k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $46.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 8? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.385 | $46.20 | +$25.80 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 4? · No | 0.604 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$96.59 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 6? · No | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$125.95 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 6? · No | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$277.16 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 31? · No | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.99 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 1? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$236.03at 0.280Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 31?
- +$233.04at 0.617Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7?
- +$82.90at 0.640Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 2?
- +$72.00at 0.390Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
- +$66.13at 0.610Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 05:14 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.999 | $116.88 |
| 08-07 04:44 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.17 | $20.40 |
| 08-07 04:31 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.9985579047 | $609.26 |
| 08-07 03:11 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.56 | $5.60 |
| 08-05 18:27 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.6247700278 | $325.60 |
| 08-05 05:11 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.5597777778 | $125.95 |
| 08-05 03:43 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.57 | $11.40 |
| 08-05 03:26 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.51 | $306.00 |
| 08-04 19:28 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.81 | $84.24 |
| 08-04 19:25 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.55 | $277.16 |
| 08-04 19:22 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.999 | $169.83 |
| 08-04 19:22 | Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.999 | $239.76 |
| 08-03 17:40 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.999 | $152.85 |
| 08-03 16:32 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.61 | $83.69 |
| 08-03 16:29 | Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.75 | $180.00 |