0x287653563ea7cff494d5f0d2cab4a6604005b675
- Realised P&L
- $8.29
- Volume
- $618.56
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $111.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? · No | 0.984 | 1.000 | $50.00 | +$0.80 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.876 | 0.845 | $18.59 | −$0.69 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? · Yes | 0.480 | 1.000 | $14.00 | +$7.28 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.929 | 0.955 | $9.54 | +$0.25 |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.945 | $6.62 | +$0.32 |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.962 | 0.996 | $4.98 | +$0.17 |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.063 | $3.15 | +$1.65 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · No | 0.690 | 0.660 | $2.64 | −$0.12 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.041 | $1.33 | −$1.60 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.075 | $1.05 | −$0.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.61at 0.310Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
- +$1.41at 0.777Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.72at 0.790U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?
- +$0.46at 0.186Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
- +$0.23at 0.947China coup attempt before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 11:37 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.89 | $15.13 |
| 07-02 12:11 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.40 |
| 06-23 00:22 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.104 | $2.91 |
| 06-20 23:51 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $5.46 |
| 06-16 00:15 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 06-13 04:15 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.908 | $4.54 |
| 06-08 07:17 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.28 |
| 06-04 09:22 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.929 | $9.29 |
| 05-25 02:35 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.05 |
| 05-23 00:41 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $6.30 |
| 05-23 00:40 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.931 | $6.52 |
| 04-25 08:35 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.50 |
| 04-25 08:35 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.101 | $1.11 |
| 04-25 08:35 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.948 | $5.69 |
| 04-25 08:35 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.791 | $7.12 |