0x263bfFaDc7CEE10853c595dB832E061e187A853D-1774358523467
0x263bffadc7cee10853c595db832e061e187a853d
- Realised P&L
- $-228.67
- Volume
- $82.2k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $20.92
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.052 | $20.92 | −$3.22 |
| Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.67 |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? · No | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.47 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? · No | 0.309 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$66.67at 0.002Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$35.01at 0.578Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 9?
- +$25.78at 0.625Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 8?
- +$12.58at 0.800US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$10.54at 0.739Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-30 00:52 | Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.0086675769 | $31.52 |
| 04-20 08:03 | Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.7385823413 | $29.78 |
| 04-20 08:03 | Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.47 | $49.47 |
| 04-20 08:00 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.001 | $13.33 |
| 04-20 07:40 | Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.006 | $21.82 |
| 04-20 07:39 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.002 | $26.67 |
| 04-20 07:39 | Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.002 | $26.67 |
| 04-20 07:36 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.002 | $26.67 |
| 04-11 07:41 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11? | BUY | 0.0401968839 | $2.05 |
| 04-11 04:18 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11? | BUY | 0.733 | $10.87 |
| 04-09 01:03 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 9? | BUY | 0.5780784641 | $47.89 |
| 04-09 00:54 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.003 | $10.00 |
| 04-08 08:21 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 8? | SELL | 0.9534012739 | $74.84 |
| 04-08 02:00 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.004 | $10.00 |
| 04-08 01:35 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 8? | BUY | 0.625 | $48.13 |