Aubrey5365
0x237e45adc328a8ac35cbc8b9d17ab81d787e3cbb
- Realised P&L
- $2.37
- Volume
- $10.3k
- Markets traded
- 362
- Open portfolio
- $74.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded362
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rachel Hurley be the TN-05 Democratic nominee? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $34.18 | −$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 88°F or higher on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $16.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $9.49 | −$0.01 |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $8.90 | +$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $5.50 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.60at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?
- +$0.31at 0.995Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?
- +$0.19at 0.998Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 22–August 29?
- +$0.10at 0.999Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?
- +$0.10at 0.999Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 02:45 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.9989999099 | $5.50 |
| 08-05 22:18 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 6? | BUY | 0.9989999896 | $8.90 |
| 08-05 19:22 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 88°F or higher on August 6? | BUY | 0.9989999385 | $16.00 |
| 08-05 15:24 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.50 |
| 08-05 10:24 | Will Rachel Hurley be the TN-05 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.999 | $34.20 |
| 07-31 02:33 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $14.70 |
| 07-30 22:33 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.34 |
| 07-30 22:32 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $30.10 |
| 07-30 20:33 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.34 |
| 07-30 17:35 | Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.80 |
| 07-30 13:56 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by July 31? | BUY | 0.9989999711 | $30.10 |
| 07-30 13:24 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $11.39 |
| 07-30 12:40 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.40 |
| 07-30 10:50 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999385 | $16.00 |
| 07-30 08:33 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C or below on July 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $8.97 |