0x208e6caeb1f94d7ec96908d22c3f4128bd3696d5
- Realised P&L
- $-0.91
- Volume
- $444.00
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $25.94
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration94.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.846 | 0.875 | $7.88 | +$0.26 |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.959 | 0.996 | $6.97 | +$0.26 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.956 | 0.955 | $5.73 | −$0.01 |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.063 | $2.83 | +$1.40 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.195 | $2.54 | −$1.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.80at 0.500Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.60at 0.800U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
- +$0.10at 0.703Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
- +$0.08at 0.820Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.00at 0.200U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 15:17 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.956 | $5.74 |
| 06-27 22:51 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.703 | $4.22 |
| 06-24 18:52 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.10 |
| 06-15 13:50 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $5.95 |
| 05-25 20:54 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $4.75 |
| 05-23 20:14 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.562 | $2.81 |
| 05-23 20:13 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $7.83 |
| 05-23 20:13 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.924 | $12.01 |
| 04-26 02:04 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $4.86 |
| 04-26 02:04 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.14 |
| 04-26 02:03 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $8.80 |
| 04-26 02:03 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.40 |
| 04-22 01:36 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $6.51 |
| 04-16 03:01 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.92 |
| 03-29 11:36 | Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.959 | $6.71 |