Valiv
0x1fb20e77e4ed8fe7b610a85ca4d68e90071ca893
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $110.0k
- Markets traded
- 156
- Open portfolio
- $3.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded156
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$384.59at 0.190Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- +$296.75at 0.376Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
- +$127.49at 0.928Starmer out in 2025?
- +$105.92at 0.222Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$80.44at 0.724Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 22:40 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $71.11 |
| 08-02 22:39 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93508647 | $73.54 |
| 07-31 20:30 | Will Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election? | BUY | 0.4699999801 | $2.60 |
| 07-31 20:30 | Will Axel von der Ohe win the next Hannover mayoral election? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 20:29 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9111875149 | $70.00 |
| 07-31 20:28 | Will Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election? | BUY | 0.4551236626 | $7.00 |
| 07-31 20:28 | Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.95 | $82.19 |
| 07-30 17:09 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999999 | $331.30 |
| 07-30 17:07 | Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.80 |
| 07-30 17:07 | Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)? | SELL | 0.9946935652 | $334.05 |
| 07-27 08:34 | Will Axel von der Ohe win the next Hannover mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2999999911 | $16.85 |
| 07-27 08:33 | Will Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election? | BUY | 0.469999994 | $29.80 |
| 07-27 08:33 | Will The Left win the third most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.91 | $100.00 |
| 07-27 08:31 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | SELL | 0.86 | $140.47 |
| 07-26 19:41 | Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.0979999177 | $1.00 |