0x1f6458ce63179c6deae264ce575bcab80c6b28da
- Realised P&L
- $2.46
- Volume
- $30.59
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $9.39
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.785 | $1.51 | +$0.51 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.530 | 0.715 | $1.35 | +$0.35 |
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $720 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.965 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.760 | 0.890 | $1.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.685 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.715 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · No | 0.590 | 0.595 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $146 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.420 | 0.390 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · No | 0.250 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.70at 0.370Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.38at 0.420Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
- +$-0.02at 0.510Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 04:57 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 08:50 | Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 00:48 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $720 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 00:37 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 16:34 | Will Trump say "Hell" during his Executive Order signing? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 16:33 | Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 08:33 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $146 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 23:21 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.3699998631 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 11:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 02:10 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 16:44 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 05:13 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 21:05 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 12:59 | Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 07-28 19:22 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |