Hellnuts
0x1efdba4eae909f94016905ffc054d62f5cd39caa
- Realised P&L
- $-426.08
- Volume
- $5.5k
- Markets traded
- 99
- Open portfolio
- $45.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded99
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.509 | 0.405 | $15.91 | −$4.09 |
| Relay FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No | 0.796 | 0.720 | $13.56 | −$1.44 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.730 | 0.495 | $10.17 | −$4.83 |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.750 | 0.285 | $5.70 | −$9.30 |
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? · No | 0.846 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.86at 0.521Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$10.06at 0.688Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- +$8.50at 0.730Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026?
- +$8.39at 0.791Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
- +$7.50at 0.800First to 5k: Gold or ETH?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 09:27 | Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.7749115914 | $15.78 |
| 07-06 05:41 | Perena FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.86 | $19.51 |
| 07-06 05:41 | Fuse FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.81 | $8.51 |
| 06-16 19:38 | Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.58 | $12.08 |
| 06-16 19:37 | Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.75 | $13.66 |
| 05-11 05:56 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.28 | $6.27 |
| 04-30 19:57 | Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.82 | $11.34 |
| 04-30 19:56 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.58 | $45.81 |
| 04-27 19:57 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.41 | $11.06 |
| 04-27 06:34 | Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.82 | $16.87 |
| 04-27 06:34 | Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.45 | $10.47 |
| 04-24 11:51 | Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.769605013 | $8.90 |
| 04-23 05:29 | Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.73 | $14.04 |
| 04-23 05:28 | Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.79 | $10.83 |
| 04-23 05:27 | Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.82 | $22.56 |