0x1e29bead786246db9d18abc750d234a4c8d00a90
- Realised P&L
- $188.30
- Volume
- $8.7k
- Markets traded
- 96
- Open portfolio
- $36.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded96
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.632 | $18.06 | +$8.06 |
| Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.690 | $13.27 | +$3.27 |
| Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 3? · Yes | 0.131 | 0.160 | $5.60 | +$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET · Down | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$106.06at 0.045Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
- +$40.96at 0.100Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-08-02?
- +$40.52at 0.066Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
- +$37.17at 0.119Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
- +$26.48at 0.070Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 21:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | SELL | 0.12 | $0.71 |
| 08-04 21:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 19:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | SELL | 0.03 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 19:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 19:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 19:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.1899999726 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 19:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | BUY | 0.1415761003 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 18:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 18:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET | BUY | 0.3499998775 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 18:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 18:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 18:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.0193175123 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 18:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.0299999712 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 18:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 18:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |