0x1ccfc1300c019d288f4837afa1c918df44ab1198
- Realised P&L
- $2.00
- Volume
- $109.61
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $4.58
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 6? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.056 | $2.15 | +$1.15 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 8? · No | 0.610 | 0.470 | $0.77 | −$0.23 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 6? · No | 0.650 | 0.425 | $0.65 | −$0.35 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 7? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.025 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 7? · No | 0.650 | 0.325 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.26at 0.190Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 1?
- +$0.67at 0.600Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 30?
- +$0.41at 0.710Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 1?
- +$0.41at 0.710Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 25?
- +$0.27at 0.790Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 19:14 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 15:49 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 06:11 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.025999975 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 13:27 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 19:18 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 08:33 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 8? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 19:15 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 1? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 07:14 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 1? | BUY | 0.7099999432 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 20:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 7? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 16:21 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 6? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 19:17 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 30? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.00 |
| 07-26 21:16 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 26? | BUY | 0.7899995339 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 19:23 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 25? | BUY | 0.7099994391 | $1.00 |