0x1ccdefae26851f0c085764ab9c1855f83f6d510d
- Realised P&L
- $-228.18
- Volume
- $34.7k
- Markets traded
- 315
- Open portfolio
- $28.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded315
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.630 | 0.625 | $5.00 | −$0.04 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? · No | 0.280 | 0.275 | $4.96 | −$0.09 |
| Will Van Hilleary be the TN-06 Republican nominee? · No | 0.730 | 0.720 | $4.31 | −$0.06 |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.785 | $4.26 | −$0.03 |
| Betmoar FDV above $50M one day after launch? · No | 0.790 | 0.640 | $4.02 | −$0.94 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? · No | 0.426 | 0.400 | $2.22 | −$0.15 |
| SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.300 | $1.62 | −$1.57 |
| Blue wave in 2026? · No | 0.270 | 0.255 | $1.49 | −$0.09 |
| Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026? · No | 0.540 | 0.150 | $0.69 | −$1.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.59at 0.487Will Liberal Alliance win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?
- +$10.37at 0.120Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 11?
- +$6.24at 0.620Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 100m?
- +$5.07at 0.680Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?
- +$4.89at 0.270Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 02:01 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | BUY | 0.4262431903 | $2.36 |
| 08-02 08:13 | Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | SELL | 0.74 | $0.89 |
| 08-02 08:01 | Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | SELL | 0.75 | $3.75 |
| 07-31 20:16 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999926 | $4.29 |
| 07-31 20:06 | Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%? | SELL | 0.99 | $5.50 |
| 07-31 19:44 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2? | SELL | 0.62 | $4.19 |
| 07-31 18:51 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.64 | $4.33 |
| 07-31 15:19 | Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%? | BUY | 0.7799998598 | $4.34 |
| 07-31 13:59 | Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2? | SELL | 0.776 | $4.32 |
| 07-31 11:23 | Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026? | SELL | 0.799 | $4.35 |
| 07-31 08:59 | Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | BUY | 0.7 | $4.34 |
| 07-31 07:53 | Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee? | SELL | 0.74 | $4.37 |
| 07-31 02:04 | Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.36 |
| 07-31 01:10 | Will Van Hilleary be the TN-06 Republican nominee? | BUY | 0.73 | $4.37 |
| 07-31 01:10 | Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee? | BUY | 0.7399999627 | $4.37 |