startman
0x1c5b804ffce9367b1d56faeb3bbe766dbb2c5d75
- Realised P&L
- $-285.27
- Volume
- $55.0k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $73.95
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31? · No | 0.950 | 0.940 | $28.20 | −$0.30 |
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $690 Week of August 10 2026? · No | 0.980 | 0.940 | $18.80 | −$0.80 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? · No | 0.840 | 0.825 | $12.38 | −$0.22 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of August 10 2026? · No | 0.990 | 0.976 | $4.88 | −$0.07 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 Week of August 10 2026? · No | 0.990 | 0.975 | $4.87 | −$0.08 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of August 10 2026? · No | 0.990 | 0.969 | $4.84 | −$0.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.48at 0.755Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?
- +$11.00at 0.890Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 27?
- +$7.80at 0.740Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17?
- +$4.60at 0.770Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23?
- +$4.55at 0.960Meteora FDV above $10B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 09:17 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of August 10 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 08-09 09:16 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 Week of August 10 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 08-09 09:16 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of August 10 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 08-09 09:15 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $690 Week of August 10 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $19.60 |
| 08-09 09:13 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | BUY | 0.84 | $12.60 |
| 08-09 09:13 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $28.50 |
| 07-29 03:48 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | BUY | 0.985 | $30.54 |
| 07-29 03:47 | Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in July? | BUY | 0.988 | $49.40 |
| 07-29 03:43 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $19.90 |
| 07-27 09:02 | Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.993 | $39.72 |
| 07-27 08:57 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 27? | BUY | 0.89 | $35.60 |
| 07-27 08:57 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 27? | BUY | 0.89 | $17.80 |
| 07-27 08:56 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 27? | BUY | 0.89 | $35.60 |
| 07-09 15:06 | World Cup: Fastest Goal in a Final Record Broken? | BUY | 0.986 | $25.79 |
| 06-15 08:03 | Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? | BUY | 0.9917548837 | $127.94 |