erwei
0x16cf28246d687bba4ebf1f7a354d88b20e32e3ba
- Realised P&L
- $-174.51
- Volume
- $17.4k
- Markets traded
- 594
- Open portfolio
- $4.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded594
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.16at 0.270Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 5?
- +$16.50at 0.350Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 1?
- +$13.25at 0.470Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?
- +$13.10at 0.395Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 6?
- +$12.30at 0.350Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on February 25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 10:03 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 9? | SELL | 0.19 | $0.95 |
| 08-09 10:03 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 9? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 08-09 09:03 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 9? | BUY | 0.02 | $0.20 |
| 08-09 08:18 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.48 | $2.40 |
| 08-09 07:31 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 9? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.40 |
| 08-09 03:33 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 08-08 13:17 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 8? | SELL | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 08-08 08:50 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 8? | SELL | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 08-08 07:51 | Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 8? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.73 |
| 08-08 04:01 | Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.13 |
| 08-08 03:01 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.45 | $2.25 |
| 08-08 02:01 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 08-07 13:49 | Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 08-07 12:31 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.75 | $3.75 |
| 08-07 12:28 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.22 | $1.10 |