EdwinMorton230
0x16acbc15175ceb0626ba51b1bceee2d6b0c79d43
- Realised P&L
- $-5.99
- Volume
- $9.7k
- Markets traded
- 347
- Open portfolio
- $96.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded347
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rachel Hurley be the TN-05 Democratic nominee? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $31.78 | −$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 88°F or higher on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $26.07 | −$0.03 |
| Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $19.89 | −$0.01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 6? · Yes | 0.998 | 1.000 | $18.73 | +$0.03 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 29? · No | 0.998 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.21at 0.994Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$0.17at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?
- +$0.09at 0.999Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?
- +$0.06at 0.997Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 11?
- +$0.05at 0.997Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on May 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 21:50 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 6? | BUY | 0.998 | $18.70 |
| 08-05 19:35 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 88°F or higher on August 6? | BUY | 0.9989999665 | $26.10 |
| 08-05 15:20 | Will Rachel Hurley be the TN-05 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.9989999947 | $31.80 |
| 08-05 12:47 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on August 6? | BUY | 0.9989999959 | $19.90 |
| 07-31 05:02 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July? | SELL | 0.997 | $8.82 |
| 07-31 02:17 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.85 |
| 07-30 20:59 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $2.00 and $3.00 on July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.20 |
| 07-30 20:15 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $18.67 |
| 07-30 20:12 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C or below on July 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $22.72 |
| 07-30 17:30 | Will Joe S. San Agustin win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.998 | $15.16 |
| 07-30 17:03 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $2.00 and $3.00 on July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.60 |
| 07-30 16:15 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C or below on July 31? | BUY | 0.9984419742 | $22.76 |
| 07-30 12:39 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31? | BUY | 0.9989999849 | $18.70 |
| 07-30 11:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 30? | BUY | 0.9989999865 | $27.60 |
| 07-30 08:02 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C or below on July 30? | BUY | 0.9989999099 | $5.50 |