Llynnoto
0x123d270315dfd4b36392d5383a31eb9a68581a89
- Realised P&L
- $-680.74
- Volume
- $28.6k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)97.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $1.4k | −$0.71 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 5? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $614.61 | +$0.61 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 5? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $492.49 | +$0.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.12at 0.994Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
- +$1.20at 0.996Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 29?
- +$1.04at 0.998Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31?
- +$0.99at 0.999Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 29?
- +$0.43at 0.940Bitcoin Up or Down on September 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 09:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.4k |
| 08-05 09:18 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $614.00 |
| 08-05 09:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 5? | BUY | 0.998999999 | $492.00 |
| 07-31 12:56 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 31? | BUY | 0.9989999968 | $240.00 |
| 07-29 12:11 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 29? | BUY | 0.996 | $300.00 |
| 07-29 12:10 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $994.00 |
| 03-13 06:40 | Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? | BUY | 0.998 | $15.00 |
| 03-13 06:40 | Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.00 |
| 03-13 06:40 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | BUY | 0.998 | $25.00 |
| 03-13 06:40 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? | BUY | 0.998 | $40.00 |
| 03-13 06:39 | Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? | BUY | 0.9969999853 | $24.00 |
| 03-13 06:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | BUY | 0.996 | $67.00 |
| 02-16 08:37 | Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? | BUY | 0.996 | $15.00 |
| 02-16 08:37 | Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? | BUY | 0.998 | $25.00 |
| 02-16 08:37 | Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? | BUY | 0.9979999823 | $39.00 |