sobra
0x118f84b55e2270e000038a92f3e3fac764df2d39
- Realised P&L
- $-65.47
- Volume
- $25.0k
- Markets traded
- 312
- Open portfolio
- $36.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded312
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.14at 0.500Will Netflix Game Controller be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?
- +$14.05at 0.189MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes?
- +$11.00at 0.543Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?
- +$10.24at 0.145Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$10.01at 0.080Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 10:43 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.57 | $5.70 |
| 08-04 18:55 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.46 | $2.53 |
| 08-04 13:46 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.42 | $2.10 |
| 08-04 13:45 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.33 | $3.30 |
| 08-04 13:44 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.26 | $2.60 |
| 08-04 12:00 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.34 | $1.87 |
| 08-02 07:23 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.42 | $2.10 |
| 07-31 06:32 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 31? | SELL | 0.31 | $1.55 |
| 07-24 05:28 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24? | SELL | 0.64 | $4.86 |
| 07-22 07:25 | Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24? | SELL | 0.22 | $8.80 |
| 07-21 15:52 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.119 | $3.54 |
| 07-21 15:51 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.49 |
| 07-21 11:47 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $1.75 |
| 07-20 18:37 | Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $7.29 |
| 07-20 17:33 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.074 | $1.61 |