mgfvsgf2da
0x10bd0b263f057956e34a9e75f4bbc35a9a558ff6
- Realised P&L
- $-88.88
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $76.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 9? · Yes | 0.546 | 0.595 | $60.09 | +$4.96 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 9? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.989 | $9.88 | +$0.79 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 9? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.195 | $3.90 | −$2.10 |
| Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 10? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.285 | $2.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 7? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.98 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET · Up | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET · Down | 0.325 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.50at 0.080Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
- +$8.27at 0.858Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
- +$6.25at 0.828Solana Up or Down - August 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
- +$5.64at 0.908Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 8?
- +$3.56at 0.918Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 06:14 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 9? | BUY | 0.61 | $36.60 |
| 08-09 05:19 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 10? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-09 05:12 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 9? | BUY | 0.53 | $11.13 |
| 08-09 04:33 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 9? | SELL | 0.38 | $4.42 |
| 08-09 04:29 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 9? | BUY | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 08-09 04:00 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 9? | BUY | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 08-09 01:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |
| 08-09 01:44 | Dogecoin Up or Down - August 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |
| 08-09 01:43 | Dogecoin Up or Down - August 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET | BUY | 0.66 | $1.00 |
| 08-09 01:11 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 9? | BUY | 0.4299999871 | $5.00 |
| 08-09 00:00 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 8? | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $10.00 |
| 08-08 23:59 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 8? | BUY | 0.9699225032 | $40.00 |
| 08-08 23:09 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 8? | BUY | 0.78 | $15.60 |
| 08-08 20:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET | BUY | 0.9225454229 | $5.00 |
| 08-08 20:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET | BUY | 0.8899999858 | $5.00 |