0x0f4022d8ffedb99e2a8b834ac74cfd6668cc2cfa
- Realised P&L
- $-141.40
- Volume
- $3.2k
- Markets traded
- 156
- Open portfolio
- $79.82
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded156
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHEIN IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.864 | 0.913 | $45.42 | +$2.46 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6? · No | 0.720 | 1.000 | $34.40 | +$9.62 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$58.43at 0.459Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 12?
- +$37.13at 0.584Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$19.00at 0.050Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?
- +$18.86at 0.773Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 22?
- +$18.38at 0.752Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 04:05 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.7199999977 | $24.78 |
| 08-05 05:22 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.0768991236 | $4.12 |
| 08-05 04:54 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.5967634428 | $32.01 |
| 08-02 04:48 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.9076793105 | $31.29 |
| 07-29 14:15 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7599999945 | $11.00 |
| 07-27 07:00 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27? | BUY | 0.7799999901 | $11.00 |
| 07-26 02:08 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26? | BUY | 0.7545343389 | $27.61 |
| 07-23 06:59 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 23? | SELL | 0.03 | $1.47 |
| 07-23 04:20 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 23? | BUY | 0.7443173574 | $36.56 |
| 07-22 05:01 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 22? | BUY | 0.7730113584 | $64.22 |
| 07-21 08:14 | SHEIN IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.8639999984 | $42.96 |
| 07-21 03:17 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 21? | BUY | 0.7414730581 | $10.00 |
| 07-20 04:51 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 20? | BUY | 0.9091673633 | $81.02 |
| 07-19 21:47 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.9074999573 | $8.45 |
| 07-19 20:33 | Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.8955223854 | $10.00 |