mrstupid
0x0af5935cb0f3784714d09635132e046652bf2470
- Realised P&L
- $-4.6k
- Volume
- $808.5k
- Markets traded
- 152
- Open portfolio
- $16.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded152
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.855 | 0.900 | $6.1k | +$304.12 |
| Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.964 | $3.5k | +$85.46 |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.706 | 0.695 | $3.5k | −$55.62 |
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.980 | 0.973 | $3.0k | −$23.63 |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.395 | 0.430 | $613.47 | +$49.88 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$364.88 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.7k |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.332 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.9k |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$386.38 |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.2k |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$292.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.5kat 0.862Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 million?
- +$3.5kat 0.310Vikings vs. Cowboys
- +$3.4kat 0.510Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?
- +$3.3kat 0.685Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$3.0kat 0.639Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 04:53 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.4 | $655.43 |
| 07-01 01:10 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.332 | $8.9k |
| 06-29 19:50 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.74 | $3.0k |
| 06-29 19:50 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.74 | $740.00 |
| 06-14 14:48 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.021 | $2.2k |
| 06-08 14:31 | SBF released from custody in 2026? | SELL | 0.924420765 | $1.8k |
| 06-03 06:31 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9827493286 | $1.1k |
| 06-03 06:31 | Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.2k |
| 06-03 06:31 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.3k |
| 06-03 06:31 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.89 | $121.84 |
| 06-02 21:26 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.72 | $9.73 |
| 06-02 21:26 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.89 | $27.80 |
| 06-02 21:25 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.89 | $27.80 |
| 06-02 21:25 | Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.94 | $56.31 |
| 06-02 21:25 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9859792753 | $1.6k |