itsatweet
0x09050eeaa670227d0f244f54694a4de9f77c99ad
- Realised P&L
- $-377.62
- Volume
- $262.5k
- Markets traded
- 1,172
- Open portfolio
- $11.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,172
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration36.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in August 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.185 | $11.10 | +$0.30 |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in July 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.70 |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026? · No | 0.194 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.70 |
| Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.69 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in July 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in July 2026? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$189.17at 0.380Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12PM ET
- +$140.00at 0.300Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 18?
- +$124.80at 0.040Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?
- +$111.00at 0.723Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?
- +$102.07at 0.791Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 15:36 | France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.79 | $7.90 |
| 07-07 05:57 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $17.10 |
| 07-06 05:33 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.39 | $39.00 |
| 07-04 08:01 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.878 | $43.90 |
| 06-26 14:18 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.9554 | $95.54 |
| 06-26 14:17 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 06-25 05:09 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.122 | $3.96 |
| 06-16 17:23 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $36.80 |
| 06-13 05:24 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.94 | $94.00 |
| 06-12 09:44 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 06-08 15:31 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $27.44 |
| 06-06 06:42 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $88.00 |
| 06-05 05:11 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.971 | $43.70 |
| 06-03 17:01 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.911 | $91.10 |
| 06-03 07:49 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.915 | $91.50 |