Elmadbfg
0x08cea69edf44f3c68ee3e4d6d92053e80defc7a5
- Realised P&L
- $-4.28
- Volume
- $10.7k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $17.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 9? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $17.01 | +$0.01 |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 · Over | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.24 |
| Cordenons: Stefano Napolitano vs Alex Barrena · Alex Barrena | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.67 |
| LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 · BNK FEARX | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$339.64at 0.500Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
- +$174.30at 0.500Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sebastian Burduja?
- +$171.81at 0.500Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win Wimbledon 2025?
- +$168.07at 0.500Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$30.50at 0.410Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 11:37 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.995 | $684.31 |
| 08-07 11:37 | Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.68 |
| 08-07 11:36 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.996 | $685.00 |
| 08-07 11:36 | Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $672.32 |
| 08-07 11:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |
| 08-07 11:34 | Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $248.00 |
| 08-07 11:34 | Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $170.16 |
| 08-07 11:34 | Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $425.00 |
| 08-07 11:33 | Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $510.48 |
| 08-07 11:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.00 |
| 07-16 07:16 | Cordenons: Stefano Napolitano vs Alex Barrena | BUY | 0.47 | $28.67 |
| 07-16 07:14 | Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $21.98 |
| 07-16 07:13 | Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.00 |
| 07-07 09:39 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.42 | $9.24 |
| 06-24 08:45 | Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.41 | $21.20 |