Michaeldsf
0x033c93710b5d0e1a515b8b2bf21d22e5cb8be99d
- Realised P&L
- $45.86
- Volume
- $13.4k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $63.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.505 | $33.33 | +$18.81 |
| Counter-Strike: magic vs 3DMAX (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier · 3DMAX | 0.410 | 1.000 | $30.00 | +$17.70 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? · No | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$400.17at 0.500Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$386.10at 0.500Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$136.69at 0.999Will AOC win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$130.21at 0.500Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30?
- +$37.35at 0.500Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 07:25 | Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.22 | $14.52 |
| 07-23 02:11 | Counter-Strike: magic vs 3DMAX (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier | BUY | 0.41 | $12.30 |
| 07-09 07:49 | Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.74 | $21.02 |
| 06-23 09:08 | Spread: Colombia (-1.5) | BUY | 0.65 | $41.27 |
| 05-25 11:46 | Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.995 | $32.84 |
| 05-25 11:45 | Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.13 |
| 05-25 11:45 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? | BUY | 0.71 | $17.18 |
| 04-29 08:13 | Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.998 | $74.85 |
| 04-29 08:13 | Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.07 |
| 04-29 08:13 | Will Solana dip to $50 in April? | BUY | 0.9989999534 | $21.00 |
| 04-21 07:45 | Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.994 | $63.93 |
| 04-21 07:45 | Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $20.00 |
| 04-21 07:45 | Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $44.00 |
| 03-06 05:45 | Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.008 | $6.52 |
| 03-06 05:44 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.997 | $21.61 |