wolvenfoxlikebear
0x02b8cadb743843a7ae4e336c0a467e73f2793deb
- Realised P&L
- $-4.4k
- Volume
- $293.9k
- Markets traded
- 126
- Open portfolio
- $6.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded126
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$492.54at 0.670Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?
- +$139.40at 0.180Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$117.59at 0.446Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
- +$102.00at 0.915US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$94.85at 0.606Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 08:37 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.069 | $75.90 |
| 07-28 09:39 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.09 | $63.00 |
| 07-13 15:43 | Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.089 | $10.23 |
| 07-10 08:56 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | BUY | 0.6216506577 | $55.00 |
| 07-10 08:53 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | SELL | 0.955 | $28.65 |
| 07-01 05:37 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | BUY | 0.8 | $24.00 |
| 06-25 21:58 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $168.00 |
| 06-25 21:57 | Iran nuclear test before 2027? | SELL | 0.93 | $92.99 |
| 06-25 21:56 | Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.88 | $114.66 |
| 06-21 14:00 | Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.155 | $6.97 |
| 06-20 09:04 | Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.155 | $71.71 |
| 06-17 17:38 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? | SELL | 0.835 | $83.50 |
| 06-17 04:51 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? | BUY | 0.26 | $26.00 |
| 06-16 17:19 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $7.00 |
| 06-14 23:24 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.3879470776 | $53.37 |