R12234
0xffddfe2066a1a49800ed683037fbcd87b426c06f
- Realised P&L
- $725.55
- Volume
- $130.1k
- Markets traded
- 223
- Open portfolio
- $199.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded223
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$357.26at 0.174Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?
- +$324.53at 0.187Trump approval Up or Down this week?
- +$300.00at 0.610Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
- +$290.15at 0.735Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by August 15?
- +$285.72at 0.770No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 14:26 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | BUY | 0.65 | $390.00 |
| 06-12 03:15 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | BUY | 0.59 | $20.39 |
| 06-11 02:22 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? | SELL | 0.995 | $99.50 |
| 06-07 18:33 | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY | 0.4 | $100.00 |
| 06-07 17:17 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? | BUY | 0.54 | $2.70 |
| 06-02 09:56 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? | BUY | 0.58 | $58.00 |
| 05-31 19:37 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $336.20 |
| 05-30 20:43 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $52.80 |
| 05-30 20:43 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.4873549692 | $53.01 |
| 05-30 17:48 | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? | BUY | 0.09 | $0.45 |
| 05-30 11:40 | Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0089999999 | $100.00 |
| 05-30 11:26 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY | 0.6 | $60.00 |
| 05-28 17:03 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL | 0.6 | $210.53 |
| 05-28 14:21 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.3608 | $36.08 |
| 05-27 19:05 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $43.00 |