JoshuaClark2252
0xff0c0db38601d375f717b6f897470b9a2c8a36ee
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $73.4k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $471.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? · No | 0.192 | 0.584 | $415.22 | +$278.71 |
| Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · No | 0.870 | 0.800 | $52.00 | −$4.55 |
| Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.138 | 0.153 | $3.84 | +$0.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$444.72at 0.320Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
- +$390.34at 0.710North Carolina Central Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs (W)
- +$303.60at 0.140Will Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC end in a draw?
- +$234.52at 0.780Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
- +$193.91at 0.402Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 08:08 | Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? | SELL | 0.009 | $1.20 |
| 04-12 14:47 | Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? | SELL | 0.057 | $3.71 |
| 04-09 13:07 | US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $122.46 |
| 04-09 13:06 | US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $133.42 |
| 04-09 12:02 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.4 | $152.80 |
| 04-09 12:00 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.4 | $217.20 |
| 04-09 11:06 | Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $20.79 |
| 04-08 21:53 | Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $56.55 |
| 04-08 21:42 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.46 | $425.50 |
| 04-08 18:47 | Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? | BUY | 0.192 | $174.53 |
| 04-08 05:10 | Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $38.61 |
| 04-08 02:17 | US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.4k |
| 03-31 02:38 | Will Ana Paula Renault be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26? | SELL | 0.04 | $14.76 |
| 03-31 02:37 | Will Ana Paula Renault be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26? | SELL | 0.05 | $16.15 |
| 03-30 16:04 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.75 | $411.00 |