0xFE5428C1B7faE9F29CC5cE3B393d9a77251541D6-1734980249939
0xfe5428c1b7fae9f29cc5ce3b393d9a77251541d6
- Realised P&L
- $-176.4k
- Volume
- $3.23M
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)95.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.043 | $1.9k | −$131.52 |
| Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.029 | $67.61 | +$2.14 |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds · Cincinnati Reds | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.8k |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates · Seattle Mariners | 0.582 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.5k |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers · Cincinnati Reds | 0.417 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$59.9k |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres · Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.629 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.0k |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels · Baltimore Orioles | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.8k |
| Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles · Baltimore Orioles | 0.395 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.0k |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds · Cincinnati Reds | 0.444 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.3k |
| Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates · Cincinnati Reds | 0.334 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.7k |
| Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$129.01 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees · Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.6k |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals · Cincinnati Reds | 0.505 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.5k |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers · Seattle Mariners | 0.543 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.6k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.4kat 0.500Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- +$45.3kat 0.458Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
- +$37.5kat 0.480Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners
- +$37.1kat 0.579Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds
- +$29.9kat 0.457Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 23:45 | Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | BUY | 0.39 | $8.9k |
| 08-02 23:15 | Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | BUY | 0.62 | $20.2k |
| 08-02 22:57 | San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 | SELL | 0.360013487 | $4.8k |
| 08-02 22:40 | San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 | SELL | 0.4700864304 | $1.1k |
| 08-02 21:50 | San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 | BUY | 0.57 | $6.5k |
| 08-02 21:47 | San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 | BUY | 0.61 | $769.23 |
| 08-02 21:46 | San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 | BUY | 0.616689551 | $2.4k |
| 08-02 21:46 | San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 | BUY | 0.6151286264 | $1.6k |
| 08-02 21:44 | San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 | BUY | 0.62 | $7.8k |
| 08-02 21:37 | Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0410154944 | $45.50 |
| 08-02 15:17 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds | BUY | 0.57 | $19.6k |
| 08-01 01:22 | Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners | BUY | 0.61 | $19.8k |
| 08-01 01:15 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds | SELL | 0.999 | $16.6k |
| 08-01 01:13 | Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.0291006516 | $60.87 |
| 08-01 01:12 | Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0428087867 | $132.32 |