0xfc94ab8940bbe47d0e1949762ec6d01aedd54304
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $18.0k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $824.36
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration97.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? · Yes | 0.301 | 0.355 | $824.36 | +$124.36 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$301.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.414Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
- +$13.32at 0.273Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25?
- +$8.00at 0.360Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?
- +$4.25at 0.652Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 20?
- +$-6.00at 0.001Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 12:29 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.3799999964 | $50.00 |
| 07-31 12:28 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.3799999964 | $50.00 |
| 07-30 14:22 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.3399999857 | $10.00 |
| 07-30 14:09 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.3332462006 | $15.00 |
| 07-30 09:34 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.2999999976 | $75.01 |
| 07-29 16:00 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.2936842089 | $93.00 |
| 07-29 14:44 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.289999971 | $7.00 |
| 07-28 14:13 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.2977021256 | $123.00 |
| 07-28 13:21 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.279999998 | $93.00 |
| 07-26 07:15 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.2990229733 | $92.00 |
| 07-26 00:06 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.2699999984 | $92.00 |
| 07-19 21:46 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0869999985 | $50.00 |
| 07-19 21:44 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.068 | $1.94 |
| 07-19 21:18 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3009999973 | $50.00 |
| 07-19 14:32 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4089999974 | $60.00 |