0xfb23b746ffc35b7ccdca5f932f8d3a528674cf12
- Realised P&L
- $-900.82
- Volume
- $18.8k
- Markets traded
- 147
- Open portfolio
- $51.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded147
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? · No | 0.603 | 1.000 | $51.04 | +$20.24 |
| Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.061 | 0.070 | $0.35 | +$0.04 |
| Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.059 | $0.30 | −$0.10 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? · No | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
| Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.16 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? · No | 0.832 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.82 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? · No | 0.237 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.35 |
| Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.15 |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? · Yes | 0.188 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$278.57at 0.408Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8AM ET
- +$172.86at 0.399Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3AM ET
- +$156.03at 0.335Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
- +$96.03at 0.472Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
- +$95.55at 0.580Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-07 13:17 | Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | SELL | 0.097 | $0.00 |
| 03-07 13:04 | Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | SELL | 0.096 | $0.00 |
| 03-04 21:19 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | SELL | 0.415 | $0.05 |
| 03-04 21:17 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | SELL | 0.424 | $0.02 |
| 03-04 18:41 | Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | SELL | 0.084 | $0.00 |
| 03-04 18:37 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | SELL | 0.511 | $0.05 |
| 03-04 18:37 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | SELL | 0.522 | $0.06 |
| 03-02 08:05 | Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | SELL | 0.18 | $0.09 |
| 03-02 04:28 | Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 11PM ET | BUY | 0.2599998393 | $1.10 |
| 03-02 04:28 | Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 11PM ET | BUY | 0.2599998393 | $1.10 |
| 03-02 04:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11PM ET | BUY | 0.359999856 | $1.10 |
| 03-02 04:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11PM ET | BUY | 0.35 | $2.52 |
| 03-02 03:57 | Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | SELL | 0.19 | $0.10 |
| 03-02 03:55 | Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | SELL | 0.19 | $0.02 |
| 03-02 03:40 | Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | SELL | 0.19 | $0.10 |