tkpk
0xf9937c57170f50538b73a6713c6f2c495552acad
- Realised P&L
- $1.73
- Volume
- $11.1k
- Markets traded
- 263
- Open portfolio
- $64.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded263
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.978 | 0.975 | $19.87 | −$0.07 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NJ-10 House seat? · No | 0.950 | 0.955 | $8.13 | +$0.04 |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.976 | 0.968 | $8.11 | −$0.07 |
| Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? · No | 0.920 | 0.915 | $7.77 | −$0.04 |
| Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? · No | 0.966 | 0.965 | $7.06 | −$0.01 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? · No | 0.940 | 0.925 | $6.82 | −$0.11 |
| Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? · No | 0.965 | 0.961 | $6.50 | −$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.21at 0.930Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
- +$0.20at 0.952Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$0.18at 0.930Will the Democratic Party win the CA-14 House seat?
- +$0.17at 0.989Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
- +$0.16at 0.880Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 14:25 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.976 | $8.55 |
| 07-28 05:36 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.964 | $6.16 |
| 07-20 02:51 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.979 | $11.07 |
| 07-19 12:34 | Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.977 | $9.09 |
| 07-19 04:56 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.979 | $7.18 |
| 07-18 12:54 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.978 | $10.79 |
| 07-17 10:38 | Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.978 | $6.49 |
| 07-15 11:15 | Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.978 | $7.20 |
| 07-15 03:47 | Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.978 | $10.29 |
| 07-13 01:03 | Ebola pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.976 | $8.18 |
| 07-11 23:26 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $10.90 |
| 07-06 12:33 | Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.96 | $11.50 |
| 07-05 23:18 | Will G2 Esports win MSI 2026? | SELL | 0.98 | $7.17 |
| 07-02 00:54 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.969 | $8.92 |
| 06-30 01:18 | Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | SELL | 0.979 | $6.69 |