largedutch
0xf89cacf5a38ab6d5cc3ec79717043c311333186e
- Realised P&L
- $15.17
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $6.25
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.195 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.049 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.255 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.024 | $0.84 | −$0.16 |
| Will Hank Kroll win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.003 | $0.83 | −$0.17 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.065 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.007 | $0.70 | −$0.30 |
| Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.014 | $0.25 | −$0.75 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET · Up | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.76at 0.597Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$12.05at 0.458Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?
- +$1.32at 0.310Ethereum Up or Down - July 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
- +$0.78at 0.490Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
- +$0.66at 0.310Ethereum Up or Down - July 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 22:02 | Will Matt Claman win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.52 |
| 08-01 21:59 | Will Hank Kroll win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | BUY | 0.002999997 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 21:55 | Will Matt Claman win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | BUY | 0.003831055 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 21:51 | Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 21:50 | Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 21:49 | Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | BUY | 0.048999954 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 21:49 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 21:48 | Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? | BUY | 0.0553042222 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 21:47 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0279999733 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 21:46 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 21:17 | Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.015 | $0.79 |
| 08-01 21:17 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.89 |
| 08-01 21:17 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.954 | $1.10 |
| 08-01 21:17 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.807 | $1.10 |
| 08-01 21:17 | Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.036 | $1.49 |