topwu
0xf48ca0294ef653eb2b7c7bdc748c174307578ec6
- Realised P&L
- $-656.54
- Volume
- $56.4k
- Markets traded
- 563
- Open portfolio
- $1.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded563
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between -0.8% and 0.0%? · Yes | 0.389 | 0.058 | $1.22 | −$6.95 |
| Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be less than 0.0%? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.004 | $0.19 | −$11.99 |
| Will the median home value in the US be between $447,000 and $454,000 on September 30? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.005 | $0.12 | −$7.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$152.00at 0.240S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 18?
- +$97.89at 0.021Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 22?
- +$46.50at 0.070Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 23?
- +$18.00at 0.140Will the Rachida Dati List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
- +$17.50at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 01:42 | Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.84 | $84.00 |
| 08-04 22:14 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.27 |
| 08-04 17:18 | Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? | SELL | 0.035 | $3.50 |
| 08-04 17:08 | Will Alysa Liu be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? | SELL | 0.890473 | $89.05 |
| 08-04 16:48 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | SELL | 0.915377749 | $70.76 |
| 08-04 15:03 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.982 | $36.65 |
| 08-04 13:59 | Will Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series? | SELL | 0.092 | $3.68 |
| 08-04 12:05 | Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? | SELL | 0.0408996 | $4.09 |
| 08-04 08:45 | Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? | SELL | 0.043 | $1.80 |
| 08-04 08:45 | Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? | SELL | 0.043 | $0.35 |
| 08-04 02:38 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 08-04 02:32 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.96105 | $96.10 |
| 08-04 01:37 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $45.50 |
| 08-03 20:33 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 20:33 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.02 | $1.00 |