0xf41fe1f085e28d79af1876e30d620114f8cc543a
- Realised P&L
- $2.06
- Volume
- $710.78
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $62.78
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration37.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · No | 0.934 | 0.966 | $19.31 | +$0.62 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · No | 0.850 | 0.915 | $11.89 | +$0.84 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.750 | $9.00 | −$1.56 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.925 | 0.955 | $5.73 | +$0.18 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.949 | 0.923 | $5.54 | −$0.15 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.480 | 0.694 | $3.47 | +$1.07 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.250 | $3.00 | +$1.44 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · Yes | 0.155 | 0.065 | $2.08 | −$2.88 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.155 | $1.71 | −$0.05 |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.105 | $1.05 | −$0.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.56at 0.616Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$13.64at 0.500Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
- +$12.00at 0.500Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$1.11at 0.040Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.41at 0.216Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-13 00:20 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $7.28 |
| 07-12 19:43 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.56 |
| 07-04 13:01 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $10.56 |
| 06-26 05:25 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $6.30 |
| 06-21 15:45 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.76 |
| 06-17 01:05 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $11.05 |
| 06-13 08:17 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.28 |
| 06-09 12:37 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.925 | $5.55 |
| 06-06 17:55 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.48 | $2.40 |
| 05-30 03:03 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.922 | $4.61 |
| 05-24 04:43 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.04 | $1.20 |
| 05-24 04:42 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $11.52 |
| 05-24 04:42 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $6.16 |
| 05-24 04:42 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.20 |
| 05-21 03:36 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.54 |